It’s Time to Hedge for a Potential Reversal in Silver

Silver just made an historic move beyond the $35 mark.

In fact, now trading at $36.25, silver could see even more upside with economic uncertainty, growing industrial demand and tightening supply. We also have to consider that silver is seeing another deficit with a projected shortfall of 149 million ounces this year, according to CNBC.

“Silver is up 25% from a year ago and has room to run higher, with many analysts predicting $40 per ounce by end of year,” says Brett Elliott, director of content at precious metals marketplace APMEX, as quoted by CBS News. “This is roughly a 20% gain from current levels, which would be an excellent return if price action follows the expected path.”

Silver prices could easily appreciate with strong industrial demand, supply issues, a weaker U.S. dollar, and geopolitical tension.

At the same time, there’s reason to be cautious. Should we see a stronger dollar at some point, slowing industrial demand, or a spike in supply, silver could turn lower.

Also, we need to be fearful when others are greedy, advises Warren Buffett.

With strong catalysts and a good amount of greed, silver is now at its highest point in about 13 years. And while investors may continue to chase it, they may want to wait.

That’s because after a stellar run, silver has become technically overbought. In fact, as you can see in this chart, silver has become over-extended, struggling at overhead resistance. Plus, if you look back over the last two years, you can see that every time relative strength (RSI), MACD and Williams’ %R get this overbought, we tend to see a reversal in the price of silver.

Granted, some investors would argue that technical analysis isn’t worth paying attention to.

But history says it is.

That being said, investors may want to hedge for potential downside in silver – which they can do by trading inverse silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including:

ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF

With an expense ratio of 0.95%, the ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (NYSEARCA: ZSL) seeks daily investment results that correspond two times the inverse of the daily performance of the Bloomberg Silver Subindex. So, if the Subindex were to drop about 1% on a trading day, the ZSL would increase by about 2%.

Or, investors can always short, or even pick up a long-dated put option in other ETFs such as the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which has become technically overbought at $33 a share.

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