Dear Reader,
One of the stories I’ve been looking at all week is gold – gold hit an all-time high crossing $2,500 an ounce.
In today’s video I show you just how far gold has come this year and what it’s signaling about everything happening under the surface of our “Jaws” economy.
Dun dun… dun dun… tune in here.
Gold has more than doubled in the past 6-7 years and most of that gain, 25% or so has come this year.
And that matches one of the big themes we’ve been talking about:
We’re in a tale of two markets…
On the one hand, we’ve been watching the market go up a lot this year which has been great for us – we’ve been taking a lot of profits.
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On the other hand, when you look under the surface, it’s more like the movie Jaws…
We’ve got a bunch of scenarios that are coming at us. I did a deep dive into them in my Midnight in America video. I even wrote a book about it, which you can get when you watch the video.
The issues I cover are a lot of the same reasons professional investors have been selling off so many stocks in July.
I mean, they’ve just been selling off stocks left and right!
They haven’t sold this intensely in two years.
What you’re seeing happen is pros unwinding massive long positions – basically taking profits after this huge bull run we’ve had this year. Which is wise.
Because the story is starting to change…
In the beginning of the year it was that the Fed’s going to cut rates. Investors expected the Fed to cut rates at least three times this year, and that just hasn’t happened.
But as I mentioned in Thursday’s update, we’ve gotten closer to that, with the Fed signaling rate cuts coming in September.
The market’s marched up basically in expectation of that.
Now, we’re right at a time when the story is starting to change…
Everyone’s already expecting the Fed to cut a quarter point, maybe an emergency half a point if the economy is showing weakness…
So now the attention starts to move to focus on the Presidential election and economic weakness under the surface.
For my money, I’m glad that we’ve sold so many stocks this year. We’ve taken some terrific profits.
Being early as an investor has advantages and disadvantages.
It’s kind of like back in the ‘90s when I was on Wall Street. Sometimes we’d go to these clubs in New York City…
And kind of like with investing – the smartest people always get into a place first while everyone else is still waiting outside. And they always leave first.
We were early on the bull side of this market, 6-8 months ago, and I think with the adjustments we’ve made in the last 30 days that we’re early on the “leaving the party” side of it also.
We’ll see if this turns out to be true.
Like I said, it’s a tale of two markets:
We have a lot of bull forces even though right now at this stage of the market we’ve moved up and now we’re kind of sliding around…
And now there’s this war going on between bulls and bears for control of the narrative.
As for me, as I’ve said before, I’m skeptical.
See my reasons here and let me know what you think.
“The Buck Stops Here”
P.S. At Behind the Markets, we’ve sold a record # of stocks this year and done really well: >50% average profits across all closed positions.
But I know BTM stocks aren’t the only ones you own…
That’s why I’ve recorded this new video detailing the five major bear indicators I’m seeing and the exact playbook for protecting your family.
