Dear Reader,
Happy Monday!
You know, I’ve begun to think lately that this might be the craziest year in the recent history of financial markets.
I mean it’s really been kind of “buck wild.” Here’s what I’m seeing…
We’ve got the S&P up 30% year to date…
Gold and silver and Bitcoin have been rocketing…
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The S&P 500 hit its 47th all-time high this year, which has been unbelievable.
Gold is up 34% – it’s beating the S&P! (And we’ve talked ad infinitum about rising gold prices being historically huge warning signs.)
Gold has hit 41 all-time highs and is on track for its best performance in 45 years.
The Nasdaq, utilities are trading at all-time highs.
Silver skyrocketed 43% and is trading at levels not seen in 12 years.
It’s unbelievable.
Meanwhile, oil prices are crashing like a recession is coming.
Major central banks are cutting rates like there’s a recession coming…
71% of global central banks have cut rates this year. The highest share since the covid crisis.
And the U.S. posted its third largest budget deficit in history – the largest ever in peacetime and without covid.
U.S. federal debt hit a record $35.8 Trillion. You know, we talk a lot about that here.
And of course, when we look under the hood of the U.S. jobs market we see that most of the jobs being created are government jobs.
So the U.S. government just gets bigger and bigger.
And the U.S. job numbers have been revised way down – 818,000 for 12 months through March – the most since The Great Recession.
Unemployment – layoffs – have jumped last month to the highest level since the covid crisis.
So it’s almost like we have a bipolar market.
You know, what’s unique about this market in my own experience…
Remember, I was a young buck on Wall Street in the ‘90s when the dot-com thing took off.
And the internet was obviously a super big deal; it changed the world.
AI obviously is another super big deal, and will also change the world. No doubt about it.
But I’ve been asking myself, is this 1997 or is this 2008?
And I’m starting to think it’s neither – it’s kind of a combination of both.
Because in ’97 you had a bubble that ended up going on for a couple of years until the Fed said, “enough irrational exuberance” and just popped the dang thing.
Which of course caused a disaster for so many people.
But once the Fed started raising rates in 2000, I just started selling out…
I sold stocks, I sold my brokerage firm, I just got out of the game, late ’99, early 2000.
So in the ‘90s you had this crazy internet bull market…
Right now you have this crazy AI bull market, and it is real. There’s no doubt about it…
When you look at the numbers, Microsoft … Meta … Nvidia … all these companies are spending on AI buildout.
It’s real – I mean, they’re buying data centers. They’re buying electricity, creating jobs.
There is no doubt that this is real just like the internet buildout was real in the ‘90s.
But what’s interesting about this is, in 1997, you didn’t have a housing bubble.
That makes this absolutely unique.
Right now, in 2024, our housing bubble is bigger than the one in 2006 that led to The Great Recession.
We have a debt bubble … we have an asset price bubble … and again, I’m not saying AI’s not legitimate, but I am saying the stock market is overvalued by any objective measure you want to use.
And the housing market is overvalued, again, by every standard valuation any reasonable investor would use.
So we have these massive bubbles in the stock market…
We have a massive bubble in the housing market…
And, we have this massive bubble in long-term bond prices.
Bond prices are trading way higher than they should be. 30-year bonds should be trading a lot lower and yields should be higher.
This is just a crazy, interesting market with all these recession indicators (gold & silver rocketing, oil falling, central banks lowering rates) as the market just keeps marching higher.
But you know us – when the risk got above level five, we started to become more defensive, and that happened in July.
And look, you know, we’re very lucky here – we got to have our cake and eat it, too.
We sold off a lot of things, we brought in our sails, and we’ve been killing it since then.
I mean, we’ve had so many triple-digit winners, it’s laughable really.
In Breakthrough Wealth alone we’ve sent 8 sell alerts for triple-digit gains just in 2024 using this signal.
It makes me look like I’m a better hitter than I am.
It’s like playing baseball in a really small ballpark.
All of a sudden they bring the fences in from 400 feet to 200 feet and I go from hitting 60 homeruns to hitting 80, or from 30 to 60.
I’m suddenly the best homerun hitter ever.
So that’s the kind of market that we are in. They brought the outfield fence in.
And that’s great, but look, this is the craziest market that I’ve seen in many years.
Of course, 2007 was crazy … covid was crazy…
It really goes back to what we’ve talked about with the financialization of America.
Basically, Wall Street took over Washington and turned everything into a casino.
It’s really unfortunate, but that’s a conversation for another day.
Have a great Monday and I’ll see you tomorrow.
“The Buck Stops Here,”
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