Key Points
Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close today, the first earnings call led by new CEO John Ternus. Wall Street expects roughly $113 billion in revenue and $1.98 a share in earnings, up from $1.85 a year ago.
Apple guided to revenue growth of 9% to 11%, gross margin of 47% to 48% and mid-teens iPhone growth, down from 22% in the June quarter, citing supply constraints.
On Thursday, Apple rose 1.48% to $348.91 while the Nasdaq fell about 1.4%, leaving it worth roughly $5.09 trillion, just behind Nvidia. On Friday it fell 1.2% to $344.63.
Palantir also reports tonight, AMD reports Tuesday, and the midterm elections are Tuesday. Prediction market Polymarket gives Democrats about a 66% chance of winning both chambers.
Friday's jobs report is expected to show about 55,000 new jobs in October, with unemployment at 4.2%.
Last week, the market sent Big Tech a message: show us the cash.
Alphabet had its worst day as a public company. Amazon slid after reporting a $42.4 billion trailing cash burn. Intel had its worst day in more than half a century.
One giant moved the other way. On Thursday, as Alphabet dragged the Nasdaq down about 1.4%, Apple rose 1.48% to $348.91. That left it worth about $5.09 trillion, within striking distance of Nvidia's roughly $5.15 trillion.
Tonight, Apple has to show investors why it deserved that vote of confidence.
Why Apple Held Up While Tech Bled
The reason is simple. Apple spends far less on AI data centers than Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon or Meta.
While those four are pouring hundreds of billions into chips and servers, and in several cases burning cash to do it, Apple has kept its spending comparatively modest. In a market that suddenly cares about free cash flow, that restraint looks like a feature, not a flaw.
On Friday, as chip stocks crashed and the broad market sold off again, Apple fell 1.2% to close at $344.63.
But that safety comes at a price. Apple trades at roughly 40 times trailing earnings, a rich premium for a company whose revenue is growing about 10%. When a stock is valued that high, the bar for tonight's report is high too.
What Wall Street Expects Tonight
Apple guided to revenue growth of 9% to 11% for the quarter that ended September 26. Consensus estimates sit around $113 billion in revenue, up roughly 10%, and earnings of $1.98 a share, up from $1.85 a year earlier.
Apple has beaten the consensus earnings estimate in each of the last four quarters. Last quarter it earned $2.02 a share on $109.42 billion in revenue, both ahead of forecasts.
Three numbers will matter most.
iPhone growth. Apple guided to mid-teens iPhone growth, down from 22% in the June quarter, because supply constraints were expected to intensify across iPhone, Mac and iPad. The quarter only captures about nine days of iPhone 18 Pro sales, and the new iPhone Duo, which launched October 23, isn't included at all. HSBC said iPhone 18 demand looks strong heading into the report.
Gross margin. Apple guided to 47% to 48%, including about one percentage point from tariff refunds. Rising memory chip prices are squeezing hardware makers, and Pepperstone expects margin to fall from about 50% a year ago to around 47.6%.
The holiday forecast. The December quarter is Apple's biggest of the year. With the iPhone Duo and full iPhone 18 sales landing in that period, the outlook may matter more than the quarter itself.
This will also be John Ternus's first earnings call as CEO. He took over from Tim Cook on September 1, becoming just the second CEO of Apple since Steve Jobs stepped down in 2011. On Friday, Ternus told AppleInsider that Apple will "absolutely" use AI to build better products, but "we don't want to ship AI for AI's sake."
The Rest of a Very Big Week
Apple is only the start.
Palantir also reports tonight. The company told investors to expect third-quarter revenue of $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion, after revenue grew 93% in the second quarter. AMD reports Tuesday after the close, with guidance of about $13 billion in revenue. After Intel's crash on Friday, AMD's forecast will be read as a verdict on the whole chip sector.
Then come the midterm elections on Tuesday. According to CNBC, options traders are pricing the vote as a relatively routine event, with Polymarket odds cited by Man Group giving Democrats about a 66% chance of winning both the House and Senate. Man Group warned the bigger risk is a slow count. In 2022, it took until December to know who controlled the Senate.
History offers some comfort. Analysis by StocksBNB found that status-quo midterm results have produced an average one-day gain of 0.6%, while changes in congressional control have averaged a flat reaction. Over the 20 trading days after a midterm, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 0.56%, according to SeasonAlpha.
Friday brings the October jobs report. Economists expect about 55,000 new jobs, up from 29,000 in September, with unemployment holding at 4.2%. With the Fed having held rates last week and a December hike still on the table, a hot number could push yields higher again.
Overall, the Nasdaq fell 2.9% and the S&P 500 fell 1.8% on Friday, heading into this week's gauntlet.
Even in this tape, analysts have been turning more bullish on select names. Our Strong Buy list for Friday, October 30 tracked five stocks riding Thursday's analyst upgrades.
What Lands Next
Apple's results hit at about 4:30 p.m. ET, with the call at 5 p.m. Palantir follows tonight, AMD Tuesday, the election results Tuesday night and Wednesday, and the jobs report Friday morning.
Last week, the market punished every company that asked investors to wait. This week, the safest-looking giant in tech has to prove that waiting isn't required.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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