A comprehensive overview of the BTM Closed Portfolio's extraordinary performance, methodology, and strategic approach from 2018 to 2025.
+1,207%
Total Return
2018–2025
39.96%
CAGR
Per Year
+39.8%
Avg. Trade Return
Per Position
72.9%
Win Rate
51 of 70 Trades
The "Closed BTM" portfolio (70 closed trades, 2018–2025) was analyzed using an equal-weight, $10,000 capital-constrained simulation. The portfolio grew from $10K to approximately $130,739 (≈+1,207% total return), yielding an annualized CAGR of ~39.96%.
Each trade was sized so that all open positions always shared the $10K equally. The simulation accounted for overlap: whenever new trades opened or existing trades closed, capital was rebalanced equally among open positions.
By comparison, over roughly the same period the S&P 500's total return (including dividends) was on the order of +≈150–180% (CAGR ~14–15%) and the Nasdaq-100 about +≈250–280% (CAGR ~19%). The portfolio dramatically outpaced these benchmarks, achieving returns comparable to Renaissance Technologies' legendary Medallion Fund, which averaged ~39.9% net annual return from 1988–2022.
| Benchmark | Total Return | CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| BTM PortfolioBTM | +1,207% | 39.96% |
| S&P 500 | +150–180% | 14–15% |
| Nasdaq-100 | +250–280% | ~19% |
| ARK Genomic ETF | ≈–50% | –12 to –15% |
| Renaissance Medallion | +9,012,900% | 39.9% |
Period: 2018–2025. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 returns include dividends. Renaissance Medallion Fund data reflects 1988–2022 historical average.
Long-term thematic positions in AI/Tech, Biotech/Genomics, Materials/Energy, and Gold/Mining sectors aligned with macro trends.
Event-driven trades exploiting known catalysts: earnings releases, M&A activity, product approvals, and "Special Report" opportunities.
Sector rotation strategies including financials/energy rotations, defensive shifts to consumer staples, and gold as a classic defensive hedge.
The BTM portfolio demonstrated exceptional resilience across both bull and bear market phases. Approximately 83% of trades occurred in bull markets, yet several significant winners emerged during challenging market conditions.
During the early-2018 market pullback (S&P ~–6%):
During the 2022 correction (S&P down ~18%):
Summary: Roughly half of top trades succeeded against unfavorable backdrops, indicating effective stock selection beyond simple market timing.
Jan–May 2018
Satellite communications play that exploded on contract news during broad market decline.
Feb–May 2018
Law enforcement AI/tech theme with police body cameras and software.
Jan 2019–Nov 2020
Captured agritech and indoor gardening boom during lockdowns.
Apr–Nov 2024
Private space industry bet that surged on successful launches.
Jul 2021–May 2025
Gold-mining rotation play benefiting from rising gold prices.
Jan–May 2023
Short-term trigger trade capturing AI hype and strong earnings rally.
The portfolio's best trades were often thematic long-term winners or well-timed catalyst plays. The risk controls of equal-weight sizing ensured that no single loss could overwhelm the portfolio.
Overall, the strategy's blend of themes (Trend), catalysts (Trigger), and sector moves (Rotation) aligned with its strong performance and resilience.