Thursday, July 16 delivered a diverse batch of analyst upgrades spanning defense, business services, financials, and materials. Second-quarter earnings continue to roll in and next week hands the calendar to industrials, consumer, and megacap tech. The backdrop remains Chair Kevin Warsh's June 17 FOMC hold at 3.50%–3.75% and a CME FedWatch reading pricing roughly an 80% probability of zero rate cuts through year-end 2026. Five names drew fresh Buy signals for Friday, July 17.
AeroVironment (AVAV) — Raymond James upgrades the defense drone specialist to Outperform
AeroVironment designs and manufactures small unmanned aircraft, loitering munitions, and space and directed-energy systems for the US Department of Defense and allied militaries, with product families spanning Switchblade, Puma, and the Blue Halo portfolio. On July 16, Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform with a $210 target, joining a bullish Street that already includes Piper Sandler's Clarke Jeffries at Overweight $235 and Canaccord Genuity's Austin Moeller at Buy $240.
Shares traded at $150.16 midday July 16, up 6.33%, with a market cap of $7.6 billion and a trailing P/E of 46.35. Trailing EPS was $3.24 and the company pays no dividend. The 52-week range is $135.20 to $417.86, with shares well off cycle highs after a sharp pullback. The consensus rating is Strong Buy, with 9 of 11 analysts bullish (81.8%), an average target of $216.82, a median of $225, a high of $240, and a low of $166.
Risks: US and allied procurement timing is lumpy and program milestones can slip quarter to quarter; the Blue Halo integration must deliver promised synergies against a high pre-deal multiple; competition from Anduril and Kratos is intensifying in the loitering munitions category; and Citizens' Trevor Walsh has trimmed his target from $350 to $230 as the stock re-rated lower.
Cintas (CTAS) — Bank of America flips to Buy with a $230 target
Cintas is the largest uniform-rental and business-services provider in North America, delivering uniforms, floor care, fire protection, and first-aid products to more than one million small and mid-sized businesses across a route-based distribution network. On July 16, Bank of America analyst Curtis Nagle upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy and raised his target from $200 to $230 following a strong quarter. Wells Fargo's Jason Haas already holds Overweight at $250 and UBS's Joshua Chan holds Buy at $230.
Shares traded at $206.42 midday July 16, up 7.30%, with a market cap of $82.6 billion and a trailing P/E of 41.79. Trailing EPS was $4.94 and the dividend yield is roughly 1%. The 52-week range is $161.16 to $226.75, near cycle highs after the earnings-driven pop. The consensus rating is Buy, with 6 of 10 analysts bullish (60%), an average target of $214.50, a median of $219.50, a high of $250, and a low of $160.
Risks: Uniform-rental volumes track small-business employment, which can soften if unemployment ticks up; UniFirst and Aramark remain aggressive on new-business pricing; the trailing P/E near 42 leaves limited cushion if organic growth decelerates; and Citigroup's Leo Carrington holds Sell at $181, one of the few bearish outliers on the Street.
BlackRock (BLK) — JP Morgan upgrades the world's largest asset manager
BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager with more than $10 trillion in assets across iShares ETFs, active equity and fixed income, alternatives, and the Aladdin platform, with a private-markets pivot underway via the GIP and HPS deals. On July 16, JP Morgan analyst Kenneth Worthington upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight and lifted his target from $1,165 to $1,364, joining Morgan Stanley's Mike Cyprys at Overweight $1,488 and Evercore ISI's Glenn Schorr at Outperform $1,245.
Shares traded at $1,082.27 midday July 16, down 1.02%, with a market cap of $167.7 billion and a trailing P/E of 21.16. Trailing EPS was $51.15 and the dividend yield is roughly 2%. The 52-week range is $917.39 to $1,219.94. The consensus rating is Strong Buy, with 10 of 11 analysts bullish (90.9%), an average target of $1,324.82, a median of $1,320, a high of $1,488, and a low of $1,200.
Risks: Fee compression across passive ETFs remains a structural headwind; the GIP and HPS deals bring integration and retention risk in private markets; a sustained equity drawdown would hit AUM-linked revenue quickly; and Freedom Broker's Mikhail Paramonov holds Hold at $1,255, still bullish on value but neutral on rating.
Rocket Companies (RKT) — Morgan Stanley upgrades to Overweight on mortgage cycle recovery
Rocket Companies is the parent of Rocket Mortgage, the largest US mortgage originator by volume, along with Rocket Money and other consumer-finance products, and recently completed the Mr. Cooper servicing platform acquisition to double origination-servicing scale. On July 16, Morgan Stanley analyst Jeffrey Adelson upgraded the stock from Equal-Weight to Overweight and raised his target from $18 to $19. Bank of America's Mihir Bhatia already holds Buy at $24, the current Street high.
Shares traded at $14.61 midday July 16, up 0.05%, with a market cap of $41.3 billion and a trailing P/E of 39.49. Trailing EPS was $0.37 and the company pays no dividend. The 52-week range is $12.17 to $24.36. The consensus rating is Buy, with 5 of 10 analysts bullish (50%), an average target of $19.65, a median of $19.50, a high of $25, and a low of $15.50.
Risks: Mortgage volumes remain hostage to rate paths that the FOMC has kept restrictive; Mr. Cooper integration is a large multi-year lift; UWM continues to compete aggressively for wholesale broker share; and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods' Bose George holds Market Perform at $20, reflecting caution on origination margins.
Ero Copper (ERO) — Bank of America upgrades the Brazilian copper pure play
Ero Copper is a Vancouver-listed producer of copper, gold, and nickel from operations in Brazil, including the Caraiba complex in Bahia and the Tucuma project in Para, offering leveraged exposure to copper prices with a low-cost, scalable growth profile. On July 16, Bank of America analyst Guilherme Rosito upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy and lifted his target from $30 to $34. Freedom Broker's Vitaly Kononov holds Buy at $42, the Street high.
Shares traded at $24.22 midday July 16, down 4.46%, with a market cap of $2.5 billion and a trailing P/E of 9.85. Trailing EPS was $2.46 and the company pays no dividend. The 52-week range is $12.79 to $39.80. The consensus rating is Buy, with 2 of 3 analysts bullish (66.7%), an average target of $35.67, a median of $34, a high of $42, and a low of $31.
Risks: Copper price volatility drives earnings and free cash flow; Brazilian mining royalties and tax policy can shift; single-country exposure concentrates operational risk; and Goldman Sachs' Marcio Farid downgraded the stock to Neutral at $31 in April on valuation.
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