Tuesday, July 21 delivered another wave of analyst upgrades across value retail, lodging, apartment REITs, used autos, and home medical equipment. Second-quarter earnings continue at a brisk pace this week, with several large financials and industrials reporting. The macro backdrop remains Chair Kevin Warsh's June 17 FOMC hold at 3.50%–3.75% and a CME FedWatch reading pricing roughly an 80% probability of zero rate cuts through year-end 2026. Five names drew fresh Buy signals for Wednesday, July 22.
Five Below (FIVE) — Bernstein flips to Outperform on the deep-discount retailer
Five Below is a fast-growing extreme-value retailer selling merchandise priced primarily at $5 and below, with roughly 1,700 stores across the United States and an active new-store rollout targeting suburban and secondary markets. On July 21, Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform and lifted his target from $247 to $250. The call joins JP Morgan's Matthew Boss at Overweight $306, the Street high, and Mizuho's David Bellinger at Outperform $220 following his own July 9 upgrade.
Shares traded at $206.91 midday July 21, up 1.36%, with a market cap of $11.4 billion and a trailing P/E of 25.80. Trailing EPS was $8.02 and the company pays no dividend. The 52-week range is $130 to $251.63. The consensus rating is Strong Buy, with 13 of 17 analysts bullish (76.5%), an average target of $259.29, a median of $260, a high of $306, and a low of $215.
Risks: Extreme-value retail traffic is highly sensitive to lower-income consumer health and payroll trends; tariff exposure on China-sourced merchandise remains a persistent margin risk; new-store productivity has softened in mature suburban markets; and Evercore ISI's Michael Montani holds In-Line at $215, below the current share price.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) — Evercore ISI turns bullish on the lodging leader
Hilton Worldwide is one of the world's largest lodging franchisors, operating and licensing more than 8,000 hotels across roughly 20 brands including Hilton, Waldorf Astoria, DoubleTree, Hampton, and Home2 Suites, with an asset-light model heavily weighted to management and franchise fees. On July 21, Evercore ISI analyst Duane Pfenningwerth upgraded the stock from In-Line to Outperform and lifted his target from $350 to $370. The call joins Barclays' Brandt Montour at Overweight $367 and JP Morgan's Daniel Politzer at Overweight $365.
Shares traded at $324.40 midday July 21, up 0.30%, with a market cap of $73.9 billion and a trailing P/E of 38.62. Trailing EPS was $8.40 and the company pays no meaningful dividend. The 52-week range is $253.54 to $358. The consensus rating is Buy, with 7 of 12 analysts bullish (58.3%), an average target of $344.83, a median of $342.50, a high of $379, and a low of $312.
Risks: US revenue-per-available-room growth has decelerated as leisure travel normalizes; corporate travel demand remains uneven across sectors; new-hotel pipeline conversion depends on developer financing at higher rates; and Susquehanna's Christopher Stathoulopoulos holds Neutral at $345, roughly in line with the current share price.
UDR (UDR) — Deutsche Bank calls the apartment REIT its top value pick
UDR is a multifamily REIT that owns and operates roughly 60,000 apartment units concentrated in coastal and Sun Belt markets, with a diversified portfolio spanning urban high-rise, suburban garden, and mixed-use properties. On July 21, Deutsche Bank analyst Omotayo Okusanya upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy and lifted his target from $39 to $45, calling UDR the firm's preferred value name among multifamily REITs. The call joins Barclays' Richard Hightower at Overweight $46 and Truist's Michael Lewis at Buy $41.
Shares traded at $39.52 midday July 21, down 0.57%, with a market cap of $12.8 billion and a trailing P/E of 15.81. Trailing EPS was $2.50 and the dividend yield is roughly 4%. The 52-week range is $32.94 to $42. The consensus rating is Hold, with 5 of 15 analysts bullish (33.3%), an average target of $41.27, a median of $41, a high of $46, and a low of $35.
Risks: New apartment supply in Sun Belt markets continues to pressure rent growth; higher-for-longer rates raise refinancing costs on floating-rate debt; concessions in urban submarkets remain elevated; and Mizuho's Vikram Malhorta holds Neutral at $38, still cautious on FFO growth.
CarMax (KMX) — Barclays lifts its used-car target by $24 in a two-notch upgrade
CarMax is the largest used-car retailer in the United States, operating roughly 250 stores with a differentiated no-haggle model, an integrated auction platform for wholesale volume, and a captive auto-finance arm. On July 21, Barclays analyst John Babcock upgraded the stock two notches from Underweight to Equal-Weight and lifted his target from $37 to $61 — a $24 hike reflecting improving used-car pricing and volume. The prior Street high remains DA Davidson's $66 range from earlier this year, with Morgan Stanley's Daniela Haigian at Equal-Weight $44.
Shares traded at $57.74 midday July 21, up 3.27%, with a market cap of $8.2 billion and a trailing P/E of 20.62. Trailing EPS was $2.80 and the company pays no dividend. The 52-week range is $30.26 to $63.74. The consensus rating is Hold, with 1 of 11 analysts bullish (9.1%), an average target of $51.09, a median of $50, a high of $66, and a low of $38.
Risks: Used-vehicle affordability remains stretched with auto loan rates well above pre-2022 levels; CarMax Auto Finance credit performance is exposed to subprime and near-prime borrowers; competition from Carvana and franchise dealers pressures gross profit per unit; and B of A's John Murphy holds Underperform at $31, roughly 45% below the current share price.
AdaptHealth (AHCO) — Jefferies upgrades the home medical equipment provider to Buy
AdaptHealth is a national provider of home medical equipment and related services, including CPAP and BiPAP devices for sleep apnea, oxygen therapy, mobility products, and diabetes supplies, serving over 4 million patients across all 50 states. On July 21, Jefferies analyst Brian Tanquilut upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy and lifted his target from $11 to $13. The call joins Baird's Eric Coldwell at Outperform $15 and Canaccord Genuity's Richard Close at Buy $16.
Shares traded at $11.09 midday July 21, up 1.00%, with a market cap of $1.5 billion and a trailing P/E of 25.20. Trailing EPS was $0.44 and the company pays no dividend. The 52-week range is $8.51 to $13.43. The consensus rating is Strong Buy, with 7 of 7 covering analysts bullish (100%), an average target of $14.14, a median of $14, a high of $16, and a low of $12.
Risks: CMS competitive-bidding rounds could compress reimbursement in future cycles; GLP-1 weight-loss drugs may reduce sleep apnea device demand over time; leverage remains elevated after prior acquisitions; and Leerink's Whit Mayo, though bullish, sits at the low end of Street targets at $12, close to the current share price.
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