Gold’s Big Breakout? These ETFs Are Already Soaring - 7/23

These Two Gold ETFs Are Surging—And the Rally May Be Just Getting Started

The price of gold is surging—and some ETFs tied to it are rising even faster.

With growing global demand, geopolitical risk, central bank buying, and the looming possibility of interest rate cuts, gold prices could soon test $3,600—and even hit $4,000 by 2026, according to analysts.

This powerful momentum has sent two gold-focused ETFs sharply higher in recent months, delivering impressive gains for early investors. And if current macro trends hold, these funds could have far more room to run.

Let’s break down what’s fueling gold’s rally—and the two ETFs leading the charge.

Central Banks Are Driving a Global Gold Buying Boom

A major driver behind the gold surge? Massive and sustained central bank demand—especially from China.

In June 2025 alone, China’s central bank bought another 70,000 troy ounces of gold, bringing its total reserves to 73.9 million ounces. That’s not just a hedge—it’s a long-term strategy.

According to MarketWatch, there’s growing speculation that China may be buying even more gold off the books, as part of a broader effort to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. This “stealth buying” adds fuel to an already bullish narrative.

And it’s not just China. Central banks around the globe—especially in emerging markets—are continuing to load up on gold to hedge against inflation, geopolitical risk, and currency volatility.

CIBC Sees Gold Testing $3,600 This Year

Canadian investment bank CIBC recently projected that gold could hit $3,600 per ounce in the second half of 2025, citing a perfect storm of catalysts:

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  Expectations for U.S. rate cuts in late 2025 or early 2026

  
  


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  Elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe

  
  


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  Ongoing de-dollarization trends among global powers

  
  


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  Central bank stockpiling of physical gold

  
  

“We continue to expect a positive macroeconomic setup for gold,” said CIBC in a note cited by Mining.com. “It’s a matter of when and how fast, not if.”

This backdrop is ideal not just for physical gold—but also for leveraged exposure through gold mining stocks and ETFs.

2 Gold ETFs Leading the Breakout

If you want to ride the gold rally without the headaches of buying physical metal or choosing individual miners, ETFs offer a simple and diversified approach. Here are two we’re watching closely:

ETF: VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (SYM: GDX)

The GDX ETF gives investors exposure to large-cap gold mining companies—the firms with the resources, reserves, and balance sheets to benefit the most from rising gold prices.

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  Expense Ratio: 0.51%

  
  


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  Top Holdings: Newmont Corp., Barrick Gold, Franco-Nevada, Agnico Eagle Mines, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Gold Fields

  
  

Since the start of 2025, GDX has surged from $34 to over $54.50, with strong upside momentum continuing. With gold potentially breaking new highs, GDX could test $60 or more in the near term.

Why miners tend to outperform gold: as the metal’s price rises, profit margins expand, especially for low-cost producers. That leads to better cash flow, higher earnings, and often increased dividends or buybacks.

And by owning a basket of top-tier miners, you minimize the risk tied to any single company while still gaining upside leverage to gold prices.

ETF: Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SYM: SGDJ)

For even more upside potential—though with higher risk—consider the SGDJ ETF, which targets junior gold miners: smaller, growth-oriented mining companies with substantial resource potential.

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  Expense Ratio: 0.50%

  
  


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  Focus: Tracks the Solactive Junior Gold Miners Custom Factors Index

  
  


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  Top Holdings: Lundin Gold, Victoria Gold, Seabridge Gold, K92 Mining, Equinox Gold, and more

  
  

These companies often represent undervalued exploration plays or smaller producers that can deliver outsized returns in a strong gold bull market.

Since January 2025, SGDJ has surged alongside GDX, with shares running from about $34 to $53.50. Given the breakout in gold prices, a run to $60+ is not out of the question here either.

SGDJ is ideal for investors with a higher risk tolerance looking to amplify gains in the gold cycle—but again, volatility is part of the package with juniors.

The Bottom Line: Gold's Rally Has More Room to Run

Gold isn’t just a fear trade anymore—it’s increasingly being viewed as a core portfolio asset, particularly by sovereign nations and large institutions looking to hedge against both monetary and political instability.

That rising demand, combined with macro tailwinds and the expected Fed pivot to lower rates, sets the stage for a sustained bull market in gold—and by extension, in gold miners and ETFs.

The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and the Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ) are two of the top tools available to gain exposure to that trend—without having to pick individual winners (or store bars of bullion).

As we approach the back half of 2025, gold looks ready to shine brighter than it has in decades.