SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026. In the twelve days since, it has already given investors a masterclass in volatility. The stock priced at $135 per share, opened at $150, rocketed to an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, and has since pulled back sharply, trading around $156 as of June 24, 2026 — more than 30% below its recent peak.
For investors trying to decide whether to buy, hold, or wait, the more useful question is not what SpaceX will do tomorrow. It's what a meaningful investment today could realistically be worth eighteen months from now, at the end of 2027.
What You're Actually Buying
At $156 per share, SpaceX carries a market capitalization of roughly $2.1 trillion. That is a staggering number for a company that posted $18.7 billion in full-year 2025 revenue and a net loss of $4.9 billion, according to its S-1 filing. The implied price-to-sales multiple is approximately 118 times fiscal 2025 revenue — a valuation that assumes extraordinary execution across multiple business lines simultaneously.
The company operates three primary segments. Starlink, the satellite internet connectivity business, is the only division running at a profit. It generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025 and approximately $4.4 billion in operating income, supported by 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries as of March 31, 2026. The launch business — Falcon 9 and Starship — is capacity-constrained and generating roughly $5 billion annually. The newest and highest-stakes division is AI infrastructure, which posted $3.2 billion in 2025 revenue but also a $6.4 billion operating loss.
That AI bet is what Goldman Sachs is telling investors to focus on. In its initiation of coverage ahead of the IPO, Goldman projected SpaceX's AI segment will generate $15.6 billion in revenue in 2026 — a 388% increase year-over-year — and $34.5 billion by 2027. Total company revenue, Goldman forecasts, will reach $474 billion by 2030, up from $18.7 billion in 2025.
Morgan Stanley went further. The firm projects $160 billion in total revenue by 2028 and $330 billion by 2030, according to reporting from The Street. Elon Musk himself posted on June 15, 2026, that he would be surprised if SpaceX revenue does not exceed $1 trillion by 2031.
Running the Math on $5,000
At $156 per share, $5,000 buys approximately 32 shares of SPCX.
The optimistic scenario is built on Goldman's and Morgan Stanley's revenue trajectories. If SpaceX executes on $34.5 billion in AI revenue by 2027 and approaches $50 billion in total revenue, a compression of the price-to-sales multiple — say, to 30x — would still support a share price somewhere in the $225 to $275 range. At $250 per share, those 32 shares would be worth approximately $8,000, a gain of roughly 60%.
The base case is more conservative. Oppenheimer rated SPCX "Outperform" post-IPO with a 12–18 month price target of $190 — a roughly 22% premium from current levels. At $190, $5,000 invested today becomes approximately $6,100 by late 2027.
The bear case, however, is not trivial. Morningstar put a fair-value estimate of $63 per share on SpaceX at IPO, less than half the offering price. The concerns are real: average revenue per Starlink user has fallen from $99 per month in 2023 to $66 in Q1 2026, according to the company's S-1. Revenue growth slowed to 15% year-over-year in Q1 2026, down from 33% in full-year 2025. Capital expenditures of $20.7 billion in 2025 actually exceeded total revenue, and the AI division is burning through capital at a significant rate. At Morningstar's fair value, $5,000 invested today shrinks to roughly $2,000.
The Honest Takeaway
The range of outcomes here is unusually wide. SpaceX is either on its way to becoming one of the most valuable companies ever built — or it's a brilliant company trading at a valuation that already prices in a decade of flawless execution. What is clear is that the post-IPO pullback from $225 to $156 has made the entry point more reasonable than it was ten days ago.
Investors considering a position should be clear about what they own: not just a rocket company, but primarily an AI infrastructure and satellite internet bet wrapped in the credibility of the most successful commercial space program in history. That's worth something. Whether it's worth $2.1 trillion right now depends entirely on which revenue scenario plays out.
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Written by Guest Author