Dear Reader,
We've been burning the candle at both ends here, working on a new research service called Frontier Investor that we're pushing out.
The idea is simple.
We want to look at frontier technologies — space, data centers, AI infrastructure — with a more skeptical and disciplined eye than most of what's out there right now.
And I've gone pretty deep down the rabbit hole on space specifically.
Let me share five things I learned that most investors don't know.
The First and Second Space Age
The first space age ran from roughly 1957 to 1991.
It was entirely government-financed — the Cold War competition between the US and the Soviet Union.
Back then, it cost $65,000 per kilogram in today's dollars to launch something into low earth orbit.
NASA's budget peaked at 4.5% of GDP just to sustain it.
Now we're in the second space age.
The cost to launch something into low earth orbit today is $1,500 per kilogram.
NASA's budget has dropped to less than half of 1% of GDP.
And private companies are doing most of the heavy lifting.
That cost collapse is one of the most underappreciated stories in investing right now.
The Two Halves of the Space Economy
Here's something most people — including most of my competitors — are not doing when they analyze space investments.
They're not dividing the space economy into its two halves.
The backbone and the reach.
The backbone is what most people focus on.
Rockets, satellites, ground stations, launch services, satellite communications.
The physical infrastructure of space.
The reach is everything that benefits from having satellites up there.
Ride hailing. Last mile food delivery. Precision agriculture. Precision weapons. Fleet management. Smart watches.
All of these industries are beneficiaries of space infrastructure even though most people don't think of them that way.
Where the Money Actually Is
Here's the uncomfortable truth about the backbone side of the space economy.
Almost none of them make money.
SpaceX — the most successful private space company in history — lost $8.89 billion on $23 billion in revenue.
AST SpaceMobile lost $400 to $500 million on $85 million in revenue.
Redwire, Planet, BlackSky, Rocket Lab — we've profited from some of these names, but they're all losing money.
The profitable companies in space right now are the old defense primes.
Lockheed Martin. Northrop Grumman.
The backbone companies that aren't profitable are being valued on narrative, not earnings.
And that is a very dangerous place to be as an investor.
The AST SpaceMobile Reality Check
I want to talk about something I'm seeing a lot of right now.
A lot of promotions are going out teasing direct-to-device satellites — satellites connecting directly to ordinary smartphones.
AST SpaceMobile has a $23 billion market cap largely because of this narrative.
Everyone is saying it's a $200 billion market.
But here's what most people aren't telling you.
The satcom chips going into our phones aren't good enough yet to carry high-speed data at scale.
Right now the technology is really only capable of text messages and simple uses.
It's reminiscent of AOL in the 1990s.
Dial-up internet.
McKinsey estimates the actual current market at $2 billion — not $200 billion.
Now, I'm not saying the bull case on AST is dead.
The technology could improve faster than expected.
But the $200 billion figure that's driving all this promotion is not grounded in what the technology can actually do today.
That gap between narrative and reality is exactly the kind of thing we want Frontier Investor to help you navigate.
What Frontier Investor Is About
The space economy is real.
The second space age is real.
We are at the forefront of a major technological revolution.
But you don't want to play it stupid.
You want to play it smart.
Frontier Investor is going to look at these technologies with a real critical eye.
Where are profits actually accruing?
Which companies have genuine competitive advantages that are likely to hold for the next five years?
Where is the value actually going versus where the hype is going?
That's what we're building.
We're not there yet, but we're working on it.
And when we launch, we think it's going to be a genuinely different kind of research service.
The whole point of Frontier Investor is to find where the real profits are going versus where the hype is going.
It’s the same approach we’ve taken at Behind the Markets that’s helped our subscribers lock in gains THIS YEAR as high as 206%...150%... 142%...
We make sure to cut through the AI hype to find where the real money is to be made.
And the clearest answer I keep coming back to is “embodied intelligence.”
Not the chatbot era.
Not the chip era.
The physical era.
Robots in factories.
Autonomous defense systems.
AI that moves through the world.
And I've identified three companies I think are the best positioned for what's coming.
Get all the details in this exclusive report.
Have a good day.
I'll see you tomorrow.
“The Buck Stops Here,”
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Written by Dylan Jovine