Dear Investor,
Happy Monday. Today is Monday, June 15th.
And surprise! This is Simmy Adelman with Behind the Markets today.
Dylan is out working on something very special for you guys so stay tuned.
Today we’ve got a lot to talk about.
SpaceX had its historic first day on Friday.
It closed at $161.11, up 19% from the $135 IPO price. The session high was $176.52.
A lot of people are excited about those numbers. I want to talk about what they actually mean going forward.
The Numbers That Matter
On Thursday Dylan walked you through 80 years of research on how IPOs actually trade after listing.
Two numbers from that research are now very relevant.
The first: 90% of IPOs eventually trade below their first day low. SpaceX's first day low was $150 — right where it opened. That is the floor the research says to watch.
The second: the pullback from the post-IPO high is typically around 20%, but in periods of extreme volatility it can reach 50%. SpaceX hit $176.52 on Friday. 20% below that is $141. 50% below that is $88.
Here is something else worth understanding.
Only about 4% of SpaceX is actually available to the public.
The other 96% is locked up with insiders and early investors.
When that much of a company is off the market, supply is extremely thin — and thin supply amplifies everything. It's why the first day pop was so dramatic. It's also why the pullback, if or when it comes, can move just as fast in the other direction.
What That Means in Plain English
I am not saying SpaceX is going to $88.
I can’t predict the future (unfortunately).
But I am saying the research gives you a framework for thinking about when to act.
If you didn't get shares in the IPO and you're sitting there feeling like you missed it — you almost certainly haven't.
The IPO base typically takes two to five weeks to form.
And while we wait for a comfortable entry point, we’ve been focusing on the one little-known company powering SpaceX, Nvidia, Apple, Google, and Amazon.
It’s a supplier none of them could scale without.
And right now, it’s still flying under the radar.
After the base forms, the market starts to independently value the company away from all the hype, the promotions, the watch parties, the bells ringing at Nasdaq. Buyers and sellers figure out what it's actually worth. And that process takes time.
When Do You Buy?
The research is clear on this.
You wait for the base to form. You do not chase the opening pop. When the stock breaks out of that base on heavy volume — that is your entry point. That forces the stock to prove itself first.
The Bottom Line
Two numbers to keep in your head.
$150 — the first day low, the floor that 90% of IPOs eventually break below.
$176.52 — the first day high, the starting point for a typical 20% to 50% pullback as the base forms.
If you want to own SpaceX, those are your guideposts. Be patient. The research is on your side.
That's all I have for you today. Have a wonderful Monday.
All the best,
Simmy Adelman, Editor-in-Chief
Behind the Markets
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Written by Dylan Jovine