Daily Market Alert

    Meta Sinks, P&G Surges: What Thursday's Market Split Says About AI Spending

    Saturday, October 24, 2026

    Thursday, October 22, 2026, gave investors a clear look at what the market is rewarding right now and what it is punishing.

    By late morning the Nasdaq Composite was down about 2.3%, the S&P 500 was off 1.4% and the Dow was 0.5% lower. Tech led the decline after a run of heavy earnings reports. Oil added to the pressure. Brent crude rose 2.2% to $111.25 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate rose 1.1% to $98.25 after reports that the U.S. and Israel plan to resume strikes on Iran. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.01% as investors looked for safety.

    Two Thursday movers showed the split clearly: Meta Platforms fell hard despite a revenue beat, while Procter & Gamble rallied on a steady quarter.

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    Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META)

    Meta reported third-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, October 21. Revenue rose 26% from a year earlier to $64.60 billion, ahead of the roughly $63.37 billion analysts expected. The company guided fourth-quarter revenue to $73.00 billion to $76.00 billion. The $74.50 billion midpoint topped consensus of about $73.73 billion.

    Spending is what worried investors. Third-quarter capital expenditures reached $34.90 billion, up from $19.40 billion a year earlier. Meta narrowed its 2026 capex range to $135.00 billion to $145.00 billion, raising the low end from $130.00 billion. Free cash flow was negative $2.10 billion for the quarter. A regulatory filing also showed about $825.00 billion in future commitments for data centers, energy and compute, and $121.00 billion of that comes due in 2027.

    Earnings also took a hit from a $9.90 billion legal charge tied to a settlement with state attorneys general over youth safety. GAAP EPS came in at $3.83. Excluding the charge, EPS would have been $7.40. Daily active people reached 3.64 billion, just short of the 3.65 billion analysts expected. Meta also said it will distribute new nonvoting Class C shares to all holders, effective January 19, 2027.

    Shares were down 7.52% at $645.10 as of 2:18 p.m. ET, against a prior close of $697.52. That puts Meta's market value near $1.64 trillion and its P/E at about 22.02. The stock sits about 17.28% below its 52-week high of $779.82 and about 24.00% above its low of $520.26.

    Analysts mostly stayed with the company. Mizuho raised its target to $950.00 from $750.00 and Barclays raised its target to $880.00 from $780.00. BMO kept a Market Perform rating with a $685.00 target. Across six recent ratings, the average target is $863.33, about 33.83% above Thursday's price, and the high target of $995.00 implies roughly 54.24% upside.

    Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG)

    P&G took the opposite path. Before the open on October 22, it reported fiscal first-quarter net sales of $23.30 billion, up 4%, compared with estimates near $22.80 billion. Organic sales also grew 4%. Core EPS was $2.00, ahead of the roughly $1.88 expected. Companywide volume rose 2.4%, an encouraging sign after just one quarter of volume growth in fiscal 2026.

    P&G returned $3.90 billion to shareholders during the quarter, made up of $2.60 billion in dividends and $1.30 billion in buybacks. Management reaffirmed core EPS guidance of $6.89 to $7.11. It raised its all-in sales growth outlook to 2% to 4% from 1% to 3% to reflect the Thorne supplements acquisition, which closed October 1.

    CFO Andre Schulten described a "bifurcated economy." He said higher-income shoppers are trading up while lower-income households are stretching budgets.

    Shares were up 6.04% at $166.31 as of 2:18 p.m. ET, against a prior close of $156.84. That gives P&G a market value near $386.28 billion and a P/E of about 25.02. The stock trades just 0.56% below its 52-week high of $167.25 and about 20.85% above its low of $137.62. The rally has already carried shares past the $165.50 average analyst target. Citigroup's $180.00 high target implies about 8.23% upside from here.

    Reading the Split

    Both companies beat on revenue. The market's reaction came down to cash. Meta is spending heavily on an AI payoff that has not yet arrived, while P&G is generating cash and returning it to shareholders. With oil above $110.00 and the Fed still in tightening mode, investors appear to be paying more for near-term certainty than for long-dated promises.

    What to Watch

    The Federal Reserve meets October 27 and 28, 2026. Midterm elections follow on November 3. For Meta, watch for more detail on 2027 spending and the Class C share distribution on January 19, 2027. For P&G, the key test is whether volume growth holds as Thorne joins the results.

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