Geopolitical risk is back at the center of the oil market, and energy stocks are responding. On Wednesday, July 9, the U.S. launched fresh military strikes against Iran following Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The West Texas Intermediate crude benchmark surged 4.4% to $73.52 per barrel that session. Brent crude jumped 5.4% to $78.19. The energy sector ETF (XLE) gained 2.8% on the day, outperforming every other sector in the S&P 500.
For investors watching this situation unfold, two names stand out: ConocoPhillips (COP) and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC). Both are directly tied to the oil price environment, and both moved sharply when crude spiked. Here is what the data shows on each.
ConocoPhillips: The Value Case in Upstream Oil
ConocoPhillips is one of the largest independent oil and gas exploration and production companies in the world. It does not refine or retail fuel — it finds it, produces it, and sells it. That means its earnings are tightly linked to crude oil prices. When oil moves, ConocoPhillips moves.
The stock trades at $108.18 per share with a market cap of $131.80 billion. The 52-week range runs from a low of $85.57 to a high of $135.87, and at the current price, COP is sitting 20.4% below that high. That pullback reflects the oil market's uncertainty over the past several months — but it also creates a potential entry point for investors who believe the geopolitical situation will keep crude elevated.
The fundamentals support the case. In Q1 2026, ConocoPhillips reported revenue of $15.76 billion, up 17.7% sequentially from $13.39 billion in Q4 2025. Net income for the quarter came in at $2.18 billion, with diluted EPS of $1.78. Net margin was 13.9%. Trailing twelve-month EPS is $5.94, giving the stock a P/E ratio of 18.21.
Analyst conviction is strong. Of 13 analysts covering ConocoPhillips, 76.9% carry bullish ratings. The average price target is $136.77, which represents 26.4% upside from the current price. The high target among analysts is $183.00. UBS maintained its Buy rating on July 8, 2026 with a $143.00 target. Mizuho has an Outperform rating and maintained a $146.00 target on July 7, 2026. Morgan Stanley carries an Overweight rating with a $149.00 target.
With crude back above $73.00 and geopolitical tensions showing no signs of quick resolution, ConocoPhillips offers meaningful upside relative to where analysts expect the stock should be trading.
Marathon Petroleum: The Refiner Riding the Momentum
Marathon Petroleum is a different kind of energy play. Rather than producing oil, it refines it — converting crude into gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products. Its profitability is driven by the "crack spread," which is the difference between what refiners pay for crude and what they charge for refined products. That dynamic means MPC can actually benefit from volatile crude markets in ways that pure producers sometimes cannot.
Marathon Petroleum shares trade at $282.43 with a market cap of $82.45 billion. The 52-week range runs from $158.00 to $283.68, and at the current price, MPC is trading just 0.4% below its 52-week high. The stock has already had a significant run. Trailing twelve-month EPS is $12.69, and the P/E ratio is 22.26.
In Q1 2026, Marathon reported revenue of $34.20 billion, up 5.0% sequentially from $32.57 billion in Q4 2025. Net income for the quarter was $0.85 billion with diluted EPS of $1.73. The profitability compression compared to Q4 2025, when net income reached $1.98 billion and EPS hit $5.12, reflects the tighter crack spreads that characterized the early part of 2026.
Analyst opinion on MPC is broadly constructive. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 75.0% are bullish. The average price target is $269.17, which is actually below the current trading price, reflecting how strongly the stock has moved recently. The high target among analysts is $335.00. TD Cowen maintains a Buy rating with a $315.00 target issued June 29, 2026. Morgan Stanley has an Overweight rating and a $265.00 target. Wells Fargo holds an Overweight rating with a $331.00 target.
The story with MPC is momentum and sector tailwinds. When oil prices spike, energy stocks broadly tend to get bought. Marathon is near highs for a reason — the market sees its refining capacity as a strategic asset in a supply-constrained environment.
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. Any sustained disruption to that corridor changes the calculus for global crude availability. Investors watching that situation are watching these two names closely.
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