Morning Watchlist

    The Super Bowl Trade Starts Now - 1/1

    Ian Cooper
    Thursday, January 1, 20267 min read
    The Super Bowl Trade Starts Now - 1/1

    Weakness Is Opportunity in Super Bowl Stocks


    Americans love to bet on sports, and the Super Bowl remains the single biggest betting moment of the year.


    The American Gaming Association’s (AGA) consumer research captured how quickly participation and estimated wagering have expanded over the last few years:



    • 2021 (Super Bowl LV): 23.2 million Americans expected to wager about $4.3 billion




    • 2022 (Super Bowl LVI): 31.4 million adults expected to wager $7.61 billion




    • 2023 (Super Bowl LVII): AGA estimated $16 billion wagered




    • 2024 (Super Bowl LVIII): AGA estimated $23.1 billion wagered




    One important nuance: AGA changed its methodology in 2025. In prior years, AGA’s survey-based estimates aimed to capture the total wagering ecosystem, including informal pools and unregulated channels. For Super Bowl LIX (2025), AGA published a legal-only estimate: Americans were expected to wager $1.39 billion legally on the game.


    Why does this matter? Because it explains why the headline number appears to “drop” in 2025 when, in reality, the estimate is measuring something different (legal wagers only versus the broader total ecosystem).


    Looking ahead, Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. With that calendar catalyst in mind, investors who want exposure to the sports betting theme may want to start building a watchlist now, especially while several related names are either consolidating or rebounding from oversold levels.


    Below are four ways to approach “Super Bowl stocks” into early February, with clear levels and a risk-aware framework.








    Company: DraftKings (SYM: DKNG) 
    The direct, liquid way to invest


    DraftKings has historically benefited from elevated attention and marketing intensity around the NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl. Even if the stock does not move in a perfectly repeatable pattern every year, the calendar catalyst tends to pull investors back toward the category.


    We've seen prior pre-/post-Super Bowl moves in DKNG (2024 and early 2025), and today DKNG is trading around $21.08, consolidating for several sessions.


    What we want to see next



    • A clean break above near-term resistance with follow-through




    • An initial upside test around $23, which also serves as a practical “confirmation” level that buyers are in control again




    Risk management lens
    DKNG is still a high-beta stock tied to consumer behavior, competitive promo intensity, and regulatory headlines. Treat it as a trade with defined levels rather than a “set it and forget it” position. If the broader market turns risk-off, these names can be hit disproportionately.



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    Company: YieldMax DKNG Option Income Strategy ETF (SYM: DRAY) 
    Weekly income via an options overlay





    For investors who want DraftKings-linked exposure with an explicit income component, DRAY provides a different approach.


    DRAY is an actively managed ETF designed to seek weekly income by selling call options (or call spreads) on DKNG, aiming to harvest option premium while maintaining exposure to DKNG’s share price. Importantly, the fund does not simply “own DKNG and pay a yield.” It is an options strategy, and that changes the return profile—particularly in sharp upside moves (where covered-call approaches can cap participation).


    Key details



    • Gross expense ratio: 0.99%




    • Distribution intent: the fund indicates it intends to pay distributions weekly, but also notes distributions are not guaranteed.




    DRAY pays a weekly dividend, with payable dates extending into early January 2026:



    • $0.3011 declared 12/31/2025 (payable 01/05/2026)




    • $0.3336 declared 12/24/2025 (payable 12/29/2025)




    • $0.4328 declared 12/17/2025 (payable 12/19/2025)




    • $0.3891 declared 12/10/2025 (payable 12/12/2025)




    Two important investor reminders here:



    1. Weekly distributions can vary significantly with volatility and option premiums




    2. Portions of distributions may be characterized as return of capital (ROC), which affects tax treatment and should be understood before relying on the “headline yield.”








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    Company: Flutter Entertainment (SYM: FLUT)
    The category heavyweight via FanDuel


    Flutter is a core way to express the U.S. online sports betting theme because of FanDuel, one of the dominant sportsbook platforms.


    In July 2025, Flutter announced it would acquire Boyd Gaming’s remaining 5% stake in FanDuel, moving to 100% ownership through a revised partnership agreement. Reuters has also described FanDuel as the leading U.S. sportsbook, noting Flutter’s U.S. growth expectations and FanDuel’s market position.


    From a trading perspective, FLUT is currently oversold and beginning to pivot higher from support around $216.


    What we want to see next



    • Confirmation that the pivot holds (higher lows; improving momentum)




    • A move back toward prior congestion/resistance zones as sentiment improves into the February catalyst window




    Key risks
    Flutter’s U.S. opportunity is large, but the sector is exposed to:



    • regulatory shifts and tax changes (which can arrive quickly at state/local levels)




    • competitive promotional intensity (which can pressure profitability)




    • sentiment-driven volatility typical of “theme” equities




    Company: Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (SYM: BETZ)
    Diversified exposure to the theme


    If you prefer diversification over single-name risk, BETZ is a straightforward basket approach. According to the fund’s fact sheet, BETZ seeks to track a Morningstar sports betting and iGaming index and held 29 constituents as of 9/30/2025, with an expense ratio of 0.75%.


    Notably, the fact sheet shows top holdings that align well with the Super Bowl theme, including:



    • Flutter Entertainment (top holding at 8.11% as of 9/30/2025)




    • DraftKings (5.65% as of 9/30/2025)




    At about $21.10 currently,  $24 is a reasonable “first objective” framework for a catalyst-driven rebound—provided the sector remains in favor.


    Why ETFs can be useful here



    • You reduce single-name headline risk




    • You spread exposure across operators and ecosystem players




    • You can still participate in the broader pre-Super Bowl attention cycle





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    Written by Ian Cooper

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