Oil is surging.
Jet fuel has surged even harder.
AP reported jet fuel climbed to $3.93 a gallon from $2.50 before the war began on February 28, and Delta said that move alone is adding about $400 million in fuel expense. That is why airline stocks got hit. The market is doing what it always does in an energy shock: selling the whole group first and asking questions later.
But not every airline is taking the same punch.
Recent Citi commentary highlighted Delta and SkyWest as two of the least sensitive names in the group. That does not mean they are immune. It means they have better shock absorbers than most peers. For Delta, that includes its Trainer refinery and stronger margin profile. For SkyWest, it is the structure of its capacity purchase agreements, where major-airline partners generally pay for or reimburse fuel and other direct operating costs.
These stocks are not safe from oil price shocks. They are less exposed than most of the airline group. That is a much stronger and more defensible claim. The current fuel move is still bad news for everyone in aviation, and any real demand slump would still hit both names. But if investors want the airlines with better built-in protection, these two belong near the top of the list.
The Better-Known Name
Company: Delta Air Lines (SYM: DAL)
Large network carrier with refinery exposure, stronger margins, and a still-live dividend.
Delta is the cleaner “relative winner” if Citi is right.
Citi put the stock on a 30-day catalyst watch with a Buy rating and argued Delta has one of the lowest sensitivities to higher fuel prices in the group. One reason is its Trainer refinery in Pennsylvania, which has crude-oil processing capacity of 185,000 barrels per day. Another is profitability. Delta reported 2025 adjusted pre-tax income of $5.0 billion on $58.3 billion of adjusted operating revenue, with an 8.5% adjusted pre-tax margin for the full year. That margin gives the company more room to absorb a fuel shock than weaker operators have.
That does not mean the pain disappears.
AP reported Delta estimates about $400 million of additional fuel expense from the recent spike. That is real money. But Delta is still seeing strong sales across corporate, international, and leisure travel, which helps offset part of the damage. The market also already punished the stock. Delta traded around $62.97 on March 20, well below its prior highs, which means a lot of bad news is no longer hypothetical. It is already in the price.
And there is still a payout while investors wait.
Delta declared a quarterly dividend of $0.1875 per share on February 4, payable on March 19 to shareholders of record on February 26. At the current stock price, that annualizes to an indicated yield of roughly 1.19%. That is not a huge yield. But it is still one more sign that Delta is operating from a stronger base than the market is giving it credit for during this panic.
The More Protected Model
Company: SkyWest (SYM: SKYW)
Regional airline whose contract structure gives it more insulation from fuel volatility.
SkyWest is the more interesting structural story.
The company’s annual report makes the case clearly. Under its capacity purchase agreements, major-airline partners generally pay fixed rates for operations and either directly pay for or reimburse specified direct operating expenses, including fuel. That matters because it changes the business model. SkyWest is not taking the same direct fuel-price risk that a standard ticket-selling airline takes. It is closer to a contract operator than a pure demand-and-fare story.
That is exactly why Citi likes it here.
Recent commentary around the stock said Citi viewed SkyWest as one of the relative resilience plays during the current oil shock because the company’s CPA structure limits direct fuel exposure. The business is still not risk-free. If macro conditions worsen, flight schedules can change and major-airline partners can get more cautious. But compared with carriers that feel every jump in jet fuel directly in their P&L, SkyWest has a better cushion.
The financials support that view.
SkyWest reported full-year 2025 pre-tax income of $566 million and net income of $411 million, or $9.76 per diluted share. For the fourth quarter, pre-tax income was $125 million. The stock traded around $88.62 on March 20. There is no dividend here, so this is not the income play Delta is. It is the operationally insulated play — the name investors buy because the structure is sturdier than the headline suggests.
Bottom line:
DAL is the stronger big-airline name with refinery support, better margins, and a live dividend.
SKYW is the contract-structure name with more direct protection from fuel-price swings.
Neither is safe from chaos.
Both just look less exposed than most of the airline group right now.
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Written by Ian Cooper