This bull market has room to run

Dear Reader,

Happy Friday! T.G.I.F.

I hope you have fun or relaxing weekend plans.

My weekend is driving my kid around to basketball games. We’re getting to the end of the season and his team is undefeated. We’ll see if they can keep that going.

I want to kick off our weekend talking about this week’s CNBC interview with Paul Tudor Jones…

Paul Tudor Jones is a billionaire hedge fund manager and investor we like to check in with.

Leon Cooperman, Warren Buffett, Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, Ken Griffin from Citadel…

These are wise investors who’ve been in the investing game for a long time.

When they talk, I listen.

I like to share their insights with you. They’ve been around the block and have interesting perspectives.

Paul Tudor Jones predicts we’re on the verge of a “blow off the top” bull market that’s about to explode into an “everything rally,” basically…

And that it reminds him of the setup leading to the bursting of the dot-com bubble in late 1999, complete with dramatic rallies in tech stocks and heightened speculative behavior.

We’ve seen the tech-heavy Nasdaq bounce 55% from its April bottom to new record highs.

I call this the “Peter Navarro gift.”

Remember when he was on CNBC every day talking about Liberation Day tariffs?

Everyone’s gonna get 120% tariffs… 50% tariffs.

We had the worst April since The Great Depression.

And we got to buy some great stocks really cheap.

Thank you, Peter Navarro, for helping make my retirement a little easier.

You’ll notice they haven’t really brought him out in public since then, but we have him to thank for some really nice market gifts.

Anyway, Paul Tudor Jones said, and I thought this was important to share with you:

The difference between now and 1999 in the U.S. fiscal and monetary situation is that in ‘99, right before that late-stage rally, the Federal Reserve was starting a new rate hike cycle…

Today, the Federal Reserve has just begun a new easing cycle.

The 1999 rate increase cycle marched right up to the 2000 top.

And I’ll never forget this -

The market had been going crazy…

A friend of my who’s super, super wealthy, emailed me the very first day the Fed started raising rates.

He said, “get out of stocks now.”

That’s all he said. It was one sentence.

This is a man who did not speak often.

The crazy thing about these “blow off the top” rallies at the end of a crazy bull market peak is, when it changes, it changes FAST.

You have to be able to move fast.

So one of the things you might want to consider is, what would you sell first?

How would you sell your positions down if we saw a sudden change?

That’s something I kick around in my head that’s been helpful for me over the years.

I suggest you do the same.

The biggest differences between now and when the dot-com bubble burst is that the Fed was raising rates, which puts downward pressure on stocks…

Today, the Fed is easing rates, which puts upward pressure on stocks…

And the other major difference is in 1999, under Bill Clinton, the U.S. was running a $99 million surplus.

We’re now running a 6% budget deficit that’s bankrupting our country.

If you look at the value of the dollar, it’s down 20%.

If you look at gold rallying, what we’re seeing is our currency debasing.

Most people aren’t even aware, but this is what is happening.

The fiscal and monetary combination we have now, we haven’t seen since probably the early 1950s, when we were inflating our way out of the debt we brought on from World War II.

I remember when I was very young my grandmother would take me to the store, and a candy bar was like 25 cents.

And she’d tell me, “I remember when these were a nickel.”

I used to think, “wow - a nickel.”

Now, they’re like $2.

The headline here is, Paul Tudor Jones says he believes the bull market still has room to run before it reaches its final phase.

We all know we’re in the late stage of this bull market.

But we were at the late stage of the dot-com bull run in ‘98 and ‘99.

And never forget, in 1996 Alan Greenspan said, this is irrational exuberance, referencing stock prices disconnected from reality.

Stocks ran up for years after that.

So, yes - we’re in the late stages.

It’s like being at a party. Imagine the most enjoyment you’ve ever had at a party…

The music’s pumping, you’re talking to the hot girl or guy, you have a cool drink in your hand - everything’s great. It’s just one of those moments.

But you know the party’s going to end - like all parties do.

And when it does, you have to be super quick on your feet.

I’m grateful to be in a position to help you know when it’s time to hit the “eject” button.

Have a wonderful weekend.

God bless, and I’ll see you Monday.

“The Buck Stops Here,”