The biggest AI story in the market still is not a stock.
On February 27, OpenAI announced $110 billion in new investment at a $730 billion pre-money valuation. The company also said ChatGPT now has more than 900 million weekly active users, more than 50 million consumer subscribers, and more than 9 million paying business users. That is exactly the kind of scale that keeps IPO speculation alive. But OpenAI’s own announcement was about funding and partnerships, not a public-listing plan.
That distinction matters.
The problem with chasing a blockbuster IPO is simple. By the time most investors get a crack at it, the story is already crowded, the valuation is already stretched, and the easy part of the move is often gone. A cleaner way to play the setup is to own the funds built to capture newly public winners after they list, instead of trying to win a lottery ticket on day one.
The Better Angle
This is the part most people miss.
The OpenAI trade is not really about guessing an IPO date. It is about deciding whether the frenzy around frontier AI will keep sending capital toward newly listed growth names once they hit the market. OpenAI’s latest funding update only adds fuel to that idea. The company did not just raise money. It tied that raise to major strategic partnerships with Amazon and NVIDIA, while saying additional financial investors are still expected to join the round.
That creates a better setup for ETF buyers than for IPO gamblers.
Why? Because IPO-focused funds do not need OpenAI to list tomorrow to work. They already own baskets of recently public companies. If OpenAI eventually comes public and qualifies for those indexes, these funds are built to pick it up through a rules-based process. If it stays private longer, the funds still give you exposure to the same part of the market that usually benefits from hot new listings, fresh capital, and growth-driven enthusiasm.
That is the real WIIFM.
You do not need to be first in line for the opening print. You need a way to participate without getting trapped in one overhyped name.
The Stronger Setup Right Now
ETF: First Trust US Equity Opportunities ETF (SYM: FPX)
Performance-tilted basket of large, liquid, recently public U.S. companies.
FPX is the cleaner trade if the goal is to own the best-performing part of the new-issue pipeline, not just the newest part.
First Trust says the fund tracks the IPOX 100 U.S. Index, which seeks exposure to 100 of the largest, most liquid, and best-performing U.S. companies that have recently gone public, including IPOs, spin-offs, and select acquirers of recent IPOs. As of March 12, FPX had a 0.61% expense ratio, 100 holdings, about $1.16 billion in net assets, and a closing market price of $160.47. Its top holdings included GE Vernova, AppLovin, Medline, Palantir, and Constellation Energy.
That makes FPX more than an IPO novelty fund.
This is a broader, sturdier basket. It does not just chase whatever rang the bell last week. It tilts toward companies that have already proved they can attract capital and outperform after listing. That matters if the goal is to trade the OpenAI buzz without letting one potential IPO dictate the whole thesis. First Trust also says the index has historically captured around 85% of the total market capitalization created through U.S. IPO and spin-off activity during the prior four years.
The chart looks stronger too.
As of February 27 month-end data, FPX was up 1.84% year to date on a market-price basis and up 36.93% over one year. Over that same period, the S&P 500 was up just 0.68% year to date and 16.99% over one year on First Trust’s comparison table. That tells you where the leadership has been.
The risk is not hidden.
FPX is still a growth-heavy, recently public basket. First Trust’s own three-year statistics show a beta of 1.64, and the fund is explicitly described as non-diversified in its risk disclosures. In plain English, that means it can move hard when growth stocks get hit. But if the goal is to own the stronger, more established side of the IPO pipeline, FPX is the better setup right now.
The Purer IPO Basket
ETF: Renaissance IPO ETF (SYM: IPO)
New-stock-only ETF built to hold large U.S.-listed IPOs before they age into the broad market.
If FPX is the steadier version of this trade, IPO is the purer one.
Renaissance says its ETF focuses on the largest, most liquid U.S.-listed newly public company stocks and is the only ETF focusing exclusively on the U.S. IPO market. It charges 0.60%, has an average portfolio age of 1.3 years, and shows just 0.1% overlap with the S&P 500 by weight as of January 1, 2026. The fund adds new IPOs quarterly and cycles holdings out three years after their IPO, with a 10% cap on oversized positions.
That is why this fund fits the OpenAI theme so well.
It is built for fresh paper. It is built for names that are still early in their public-market life. And it is built to stay away from the old, over-owned stocks that already dominate broad indexes. If OpenAI ever does list and later qualifies for the index, this is exactly the kind of vehicle that could absorb it in a disciplined way.
The current holdings tell the story.
As of March 13, the top positions included Kenvue at 10.90%, CoreWeave at 10.30%, Nextracker at 7.15%, Reddit at 6.39%, Astera Labs at 6.36%, and Arm at 6.17%. Technology made up 38.3% of the portfolio, and the fund’s market price on March 12 was $42.46.
The trade-off is obvious.
This fund is more volatile because it lives closer to the blast zone. Renaissance’s own risk language says recently public stocks can show extreme price volatility because they lack long trading histories, broad research coverage, and long reporting records. The fund was down 4.64% year to date as of February 28, even though it was still up 4.02% over one year and had annualized 15.82% over three years.
Bottom line:
FPX is the stronger chart and the broader basket.
IPO is the purer new-issue trade.
The smarter OpenAI setup is not buying a name you still cannot buy. It is owning the baskets designed to catch the move when a name like that finally hits the tape.
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Written by Ian Cooper