Dear Reader,
This is Dylan Jovine with Behind the Markets.
Happy Monday.
Today is Monday, August 10th.
I can't believe September is just a few weeks away.
Today I want to talk about a new note out from Bank of America that caught my attention this morning.
The Bull-Bear Indicator
Bank of America tracks something they call their bull-bear indicator.
It just hit 9.7.
To put that in context — they've been tracking this for 24 years, and 9.7 is one of the highest readings they've ever recorded.
Earlier this summer it was very bullish.
Then the chip stocks sold off and sentiment got pretty bearish.
Now we're right back to euphoric.
And a lot of that is being driven by Friday's jobs report.
The US economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July — much weaker than expected.
And the market loved it.
Why?
Because a weak jobs number means the Fed is less likely to raise rates.
If things get soft enough, they might even cut.
So the market rallied on bad economic news.
Welcome to investing in 2026.
What the Signal Actually Says
Bank of America's note is worth paying attention to here.
They say that every time their bull-bear indicator hits this level — right up near 9.7, close to the maximum of 10 — it has historically been a sell signal.
Since 2002, this signal has hit this high level 17 times.
Over the following two to three months, stocks have declined by an average of 2% to 3%.
The signal has proven correct about 60% of the time.
Maximum drawdowns during those periods have ranged from 15% to 20%.
Bank of America recommends retreating from risk assets and moving into safer holdings.
My View
I'll be honest — that's not really how I play the game.
My approach is a lot simpler.
Buy assets for less than they're worth.
Period.
Whether the market is high or low, I'm always asking the same question: is this stock cheap relative to what it's actually worth?
When you play it that way, you don't have to worry too much about whether sentiment is at 9.7 or 5.3.
You're not making a bet on the market.
You're making a bet on a specific business at a specific price.
Now, I know someone out there is going to say — and it's a fair complaint — "Dylan, you recommended this stock at $10, sold it at $50, and then it went to $100. Why'd you sell?"
I hear that.
And here's my honest answer.
The same discipline that makes me sell when something gets above its value is the same discipline that produces a 74% win rate and roughly 40% average gains across every trade we do — winners and losers.
Some editors out there are more cowboy than me.
They ride things higher.
And sometimes they're right.
But you gotta play your system.
And my system is built for the long haul — especially for the retirees and near-retirees who make up most of our members.
Protecting capital comes first.
When you do that consistently over decades, the track record takes care of itself.
Trust me on this one.
Which brings me to something specific.
Because I just told you I don't make bets on the market. I make bets on a business at a price.
So let me spend an extra minute on one.
There's a valley in Utah where a drilling crew just got to a fuel source the oil industry spent fifty years trying to keep buried.
The Department of Energy is funding the work — the most ambitious drilling initiative they've backed since the program that helped launch the shale revolution.
Google has written a check.
So has Berkshire Hathaway.
So has the Pentagon.
That is an unusual group to agree on anything.
And one company sits right at the center of it.
Here's why I'm bringing it up today instead of next month: the whole thing starts on August 18th.
That's only eight days from now.
And it has nothing to do with whether sentiment is at 9.7 or 5.3.
Have a wonderful day.
I'll see you tomorrow.
"The Buck Stops Here,"
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Written by Dylan Jovine