Our 2025 Results Are In: 50.2% Average Gain

Dear Reader,

Happy Friday.

Today is Friday the 26th, and I’m genuinely excited to do something I think is incredibly important — our annual review. This is the time of year where I eat some crow, celebrate some wins, and keep myself accountable to you. And I believe that’s something every honest financial publisher should do.

Many of you pay for this service. You trust us. And I believe with trust comes the responsibility to show you how we actually perform. Not fantasy, not selective memory — reality.

So every year our track record is audited independently by Conrad at Conquest Investment Advisory. He is as serious as it gets. He tracks every trade, logs every move on Bloomberg, and does this not only for us, but for other major financial publishers and asset managers as well. In other words, this isn’t backyard math. This is professional verification.

So how did we do?

Since launching Behind the Markets in 2018, our average gain on all closed positions — meaning only trades we’ve completed — is right around 42% through 2024.

And for 2025?

This year, on all closed trades, Behind the Markets delivered an average gain of 50.20%.

That includes some big wins… and yes, some painful losers.

Our biggest winner this year was IonQ. We sold half for a 431% gain, and the other half for an 81% gain, giving us an average of about 256%. We also had strong wins with Talen Energy at 91%, Kinross Gold at 133%, Mirion Technologies at 100%, and several others. Some of these were long holds. For instance, gold-related trades like Kinross came from our “Prepare for War” research from 2021 — so averaged out, that’s roughly 28% to 32% a year depending on which buys you made.

Now if you compare it to prior years:
• 2024 – 38.58%
• 2023 – 24.49%
• 2022 – 34.04%
• 2021 – 42.34%
• 2020 – 22%
• 2019 – (12.96%) (yep, not every year is pretty)
• 2018 – 86% (still our best year ever)

So 2025 stands as our second-best year since launch. And I’ll be honest — in a year like this, when I look around the industry, I always think of a saying they’ve used on Wall Street forever:

“You can tell you’re near the end of a bull market by the kind of companies going public…”

I’d add my own version:

You can also tell by how many people suddenly brag about their “amazing track records.”

This year, my phone has lit up with friends telling me how they’re up 60%, 70%, 40%. And I always think, “That’s great. But how did you do when things weren’t easy?” Because everyone looks like a genius when the wind is at their back.

What matters is how you perform when the market punches you in the mouth.

How did you do in 2022 when inflation rocked the market and the Fed slammed the brakes? We averaged 34%.
2020? COVID crash. We averaged 22%.

Anybody can look heroic in good times. Discipline matters when times are tough.

Now for the part I don’t enjoy — the dumb things I did this year.

Probably the decision I regret most was selling MP Materials too early. Not long after we sold, Trump announced a major investment deal and… yeah… that one stung.

Seadrill was another one where I was simply on the wrong side of timing. And Airbnb — I recommended it in 2021, held it longer than I normally hold positions, and finally closed it with a 23% loss. I got the company right. I got the valuation wrong.

In total this year, I count:
✔️ 19 wins
❌ 4 losses

Roughly in line with our long-term average — about a 70% to 75% win rate.

So yes, we celebrate the successes proudly. And we own the mistakes honestly.

That’s accountability. And in this business, I think it’s rare.

That’s all I have for today. Have a wonderful weekend. Enjoy time with your family, rest, recharge, and I’ll see you Monday.

“The Buck Stops Here,”