Dear Fellow Investor,
I've been doing this long enough to know when something is genuinely different.
Not "feels different." Not "everyone's excited so maybe it's different."
Actually different.
The kind of different where — years from now — people will remember whether they were paying attention or not.
The SpaceX IPO was one of those moments.
I'll be honest: I'd been skeptical of Elon's ability to pull this off cleanly.
The xAI merger was messy.
The Grok numbers weren't pretty — a $6.4 billion operating loss in 2025, another $2.5 billion gone just in Q1 of this year.
And Morningstar said the $1.75 trillion valuation was twice what the business was worth.
All of that is real. I'm not waving it away.
But here's what I keep coming back to:
Anthropic signed a deal to lease the entire compute capacity of the Colossus data center — 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, 300 megawatts — for $1.25 billion a month. Through May 2029.
That's potentially $45 billion over the life of the contract, locked in before a single share traded publicly.
Google signed a multi-year cloud-service agreement starting next month and running through June 2029, committing $920 million per month…
Reflection AI signed a deal worth up to $6.3 billion, paying $150 million per month for access to Nvidia GB300 chips at the Colossus 2 data center.
Compute agreements with Anthropic and Google alone generate about $26 billion annually for SpaceX.
That's not hype. That's revenue. Serious revenue at that.
And Anthropic, Google, Reflection AI…
They're not being generous.
They need the compute to run their own lucrative businesses.
So what you have here is the world's hottest AI companies paying the world's most talked-about IPO ever nearly $28 billion a year to power their own growth.
That's a different kind of business.
And here's the part that still surprises people when I point it out.
After all of that — the contracts, the revenue, the headlines — SPCX still trades below the price it closed at on its very first day as a public company.
Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan put $225 price targets on the stock, for before the end of next year.
Raymond James's analyst put it at $800 a share by 2035.
Citigroup is calling for $200 before the end of 2026, a so-called "milestone along the path to $900+," which implies a market cap of $12.2 trillion.
75% of analysts covering SPCX are bullish.
Now, does that mean you just close your eyes and buy SPCX here?
No. That's not how I do this. And that's not how I'm advising anyone on our end to approach it.
I've watched too many people get destroyed buying into the "story" of a hot IPO — only to spend two, three, four years watching the stock drift sideways while insiders wait for their lockups to expire.
The retail investor almost always buys after the gift has already been delivered.
The way to play something like this is to understand the structure before it opens.
The lockup triggers. The float. The price-to-clearing-demand gap.
Where the real value is buried inside the filing versus what's been sold on the roadshow.
Starlink is genuinely profitable — $4.4 billion in operating income on $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025.
ARPU, average revenue per user, is falling as they push into lower-priced international markets, which is worth watching carefully, but subscriber growth is staggering — 5 million to 10.3 million in a single year.
That business, priced right, is worth owning.
The xAI segment is a different conversation entirely.
As you may recall if you're a regular Diary reader, I spent the weeks leading up to SpaceX's IPO going through the S-1, talking to contacts, and thinking about exactly how to position myself and my readers.
And there are three steps absolutely worth taking now, even as SpaceX's share price bobs and weaves.
Markets are closed Monday for Labor Day, so you have the long weekend to think it through — I'm showing you three specific moves you can make at Tuesday's open, along with the logic behind each one.
I'm not writing to give you vague "be careful" advice.
I've put it all together in a full briefing for readers —
What the Colossus infrastructure actually means for the long-term thesis…
How I'm thinking about valuation…
And the exact positioning framework I'd use if I were putting new money to work around SpaceX and its lesser-known partners.
If you want to see it, it's all right here:
→ Elon's Next Move: The $1.75 Trillion Colossus depends on one company Wall Street has overlooked
Have a wonderful Sunday.
I'll see you tomorrow.
"The Buck Stops Here,"
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Written by Dylan Jovine