Brent crude touched $109.97 a barrel on Friday, its highest level in four months. By the close it had given back roughly three percent. The week still finished with crude above $100 for the first time since mid-May — and with the largest U.S. oil company barely reacting on the final day.
Exxon Mobil closed Friday at $165.99, up 76 cents or 0.46%, on 10.5 million shares. Chevron closed at $214.06, up $1.30 or 0.61%. Neither move tells you much. The week behind them does.
The week in crude
Brent traded at $104.09 a barrel late Friday, up 8.1% from the prior Friday's close of $96.28.
West Texas Intermediate traded near $99.20 to $99.52, up roughly 8.4% from $91.48 a week earlier. The October contract tracked by CNBC settled around $100.23, down 2.20% on the day.
Both benchmarks rose more than 6% on Thursday alone, with Brent settling at $107.63 and WTI at $102.48.
On Friday both gave back ground after the Financial Times reported that Middle Eastern foreign ministers were working toward a temporary arrangement with Iran to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The cause of the surge was physical, not financial. Attacks along Middle East shipping routes intensified over the prior two weeks, including Houthi assaults on Saudi energy facilities that forced some operations to halt. Oil continues to move through the Strait of Hormuz, in some cases on tankers sailing with transponders switched off to avoid detection, but volumes are restricted and vessels face continuing risk.
Top diplomats from the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council plan to meet their Iranian counterpart on Monday, September 14, in Oman, in a push backed by Oman and Iran to secure agreement on temporarily managing traffic through the waterway. That meeting is the single most consequential scheduled event for energy prices next week — more than any data release.
Markets are still pricing the risk of a longer conflict. Comments from President Trump that the war could extend beyond the November midterm elections have not eased that pricing, and global bond yields rose during the week on the inflation implications.
What a $100 barrel does to Exxon's math
Exxon's most recent full results, reported July 31 for the second quarter, show what the company earns before this latest move in crude was in the numbers.
Earnings of $14.5 billion, or $3.48 per share on a GAAP basis; adjusted earnings of $14.7 billion, or $3.52 per share.
Year-to-date GAAP earnings of $18.708 billion, against $14.795 billion in the same period of 2025.
Cash flow from operating activities of $23.6 billion and free cash flow of $17.2 billion in a single quarter.
Shareholder distributions of $9.4 billion, split between $4.3 billion in dividends and $5.1 billion in share repurchases.
Highest upstream production in more than two decades, excluding the Middle East disruptions, including record Permian output consistent with a planned 9% compound annual growth rate through 2030.
The fifth Guyana floating production vessel set sail, with startup on plan for the fourth quarter of 2026 and capacity rising by 250,000 barrels per day.
Record second-quarter diesel production, and cumulative structural cost savings of $16.3 billion.
"The second quarter was shaped by disruption, but defined by execution," said chairman and chief executive Darren Woods. "Markets were supportive, but our performance reflected the strength of the portfolio and operating model we have built over many years."
Refining is where the current squeeze shows up fastest. BP reported a second-quarter refining indicator margin of $29.6 per barrel against $11.9 a year earlier — a spread that flows through the downstream results of every integrated major, Exxon included.
Exxon shares have gained roughly 40% year to date, against a 52-week range of $110.39 to $176.41. That is a return built on a commodity price the company does not set, which is the permanent condition of the business. It is also why energy names kept turning up in this week's analyst upgrade lists while the broader tape was falling.
The inflation channel
Energy is not a sector story this month. It is the inflation story.
August producer prices, released Thursday, rose 0.4% for the month and 5.4% over twelve months, up from 4.8% in July. Goods prices rose 1.1%, and energy alone rose 4.2% on the month — more than three quarters of the entire goods increase. Services rose 0.1%, the slowest in three months. Core PPI rose 0.3% monthly and 4.7% annually.
August consumer prices, released Friday morning, rose 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annually, both in line with the Dow Jones consensus. Core CPI rose 0.3%, a tenth above forecast, with the annual core rate at 2.4%.
The University of Michigan's preliminary September survey, out the same morning, showed consumer sentiment falling to 47.8 from 51.7, the second-lowest reading since the series began in 1952, with one-year inflation expectations jumping to 4.6% from 4.0%. Survey director Joanne Hsu attributed the deterioration directly to fuel: "With a resurgence in fuel prices and trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressures on their pocketbooks to come."
That is the chain. Tankers, then diesel, then the price index, then the Federal Reserve. Odds of a quarter-point rate increase on Wednesday sat near 86% to 90% by Friday afternoon on CME Group's FedWatch tool, up from 72% on Thursday.
Energy policy has become trade policy has become market policy, a pattern visible well outside the oil patch — including in Washington's threats against a major planemaker this week.
Where the tape closed
Friday's session was a rebound. The S&P 500 closed at 7,656.98, up 65.28 points or 0.86%. The Dow finished at 52,573.29, up 509.19 or 0.98%. The Nasdaq Composite ended at 26,333.04, up 251.31 or 0.96%.
All three major averages still ended the week lower. The S&P 500 had fallen 2.0% across four sessions through Thursday, its deepest four-day pullback since June, undercutting its 50-day moving average before Friday's recovery. The Dow fell through its own 50-day line during the week, and the small-cap Russell 2000 hit a three-month low.
The CBOE Volatility Index dropped 11.21% to 15.84 as the oil pullback eased the pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.969%, up 2.5 basis points, after touching 4.9915% just after the CPI release — the highest in almost three years. The 30-year reached its highest in more than 19 years during the week.
Individual closes: Kroger $58.49 (+2.70%) after cutting its full-year sales guidance, Adobe $252.23 (+1.37%), Microsoft $495.63 (+0.65%), Nvidia $218.29 (−0.03%), Oracle $150.28 (−1.74%).
What lands next
Monday brings the Gulf Cooperation Council's meeting with Iran in Oman and Canadian CPI for August. Tuesday brings U.S. retail sales for August and Chinese activity data. Wednesday brings the Federal Reserve's policy announcement and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. The Bank of England follows Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, with FedEx and Lennar reporting earnings during the week.
For energy investors the order matters: the Oman meeting lands two days before the Fed decides, and what happens to the barrel on Monday will shape what the committee is looking at on Wednesday. Whether crude at $100 is a windfall or a warning depends on which side of the trade you are on — a question not unlike comparing the returns on a scarce asset against the index itself.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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